kheru2006 (kheru2006) wrote,

Japanese Quake and Tsunami Predicted July 22 2009

by Britton LaRoche 01/08/2009 (10:12 pm)

So this is the last post on the Eclipse Earthquake simulator. I have no plans to create the simulator (but before I drop the idea all together) I thought I'd use a little Psuedo science to make my own earth quake prediction for the July 22 2009 Eclipse.

The eclipse quake theory is as follows, When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling on a plate that has not had series of recent earth quakes, the extra pull is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake. I used the theory to predict the biggest magnitude of earthquake activity, and it happens to be in Southern Japan. Japan sits on or near the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates

view plainprint

  1. Japan Time  Magnitude  
  2. 9                     0  
  3. 10                    1  
  4. 11                    3  
  5. 12                    3  
  6. 13                    5  
  7. 14                    3  
  8. 15                    6  
  9. 16                    4  
  10. 17                    5  
  11. 18                    5  
  12. 19                    2  
  13. 20                    2  
  14. 21                    0  
  15. 22                    0  
  16. 23                    0  
  17. 24                    0  

Japan Time  Magnitude

9                     0

10                    1

11                    3

12                    3

13                    5

14                    3

15                    6

16                    4

17                    5

18                    5

19                    2

20                    2

21                    0

22                    0

23                    0

24                    0


Japans tectonic plates

I predict a 6+ Magnitude Quake on July 22 2009 at 3:00PM Local Japanese time. This will be follower by two level 5+ Earthquakes and a Tsunami between 5:00PM and 7:00PM. The tsunami will start out in the pacfic ocean (to the South East of Japan ... Along the fault line) and hit all the islands to the south west of Japan, Indonesia and even reach New Zealand. The major quakes will actually be along the fault lines in the Ocean.

Most of the quake activity will be south of Japan. Taiwan and Indonesia will probably be hit hard too.

Note: I have absolutely no credibility to do this. I'm just applying the theory that the gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon pulling together will do the following things.

1. Lift the tectonic plates
2. Cause the tide to rise more than usual
3. Cause an underground molten magma tide to dip and raise the plates following the water tide.

I placed all the time data from the Nasa eclipse site into an excel spread sheet four the four tectonic plates in the region. I assumed an hour delay for each event following the lunar eclipse, and then summed the values. I assumed that the events would last longer for the fluids, water and molten magma than for dry land. I then summed the values four all 4 plates where Japan sits.


The blue path above shows the lunar path that will achieve the full solar eclipse at around 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Red dots show where the solar eclipse will be full.

I think a real simulator to test the theory would be a great benefit. I think the TGEA properly applied with a physics engine could do it. Who knows what the real values are, but its a fun idea to play with.

The original guy who came up with the theory said it could take up to 48 hours to get the quake. But I say that makes no sense. If the eclipse really does have an impact it should be within a few hours.

Eclipse & Earthquake Simulator
by Britton LaRoche 01/07/2009 (4:45 pm)

Every now and again I have a great idea for game that has a practical application. I think the TGE and a basic physics engine would make this simulator viable. I'm not going to do this anytime soon, so I'm releasing this idea into the royalty free public domain. Anyone who wants to do this by all means, give it a shot!

Earthquake / Eclipse Simulator

The idea is there are a number of websites and even a few TV shows that claim there is a number of ways to predict an earthquake. One of them is to look at the solar eclipse and the major earth "tectonic" plates for continental drift. When the gravitational force of the sun and moon are both pulling on a plate that has not had series of recent earth quakes, the extra pull is all that is needed to "pop the seam" and cause a major quake.

The theory is based on gravitation pull and the earth's tectonic plates

A solar eclipse means that the moon is blocking the sun. The moon has enough gravitational pull to cause the tides an other natural phenomena on earth. The sun has enough gravitational pull to keep the earth in orbit. The theory is that during a solar eclipse, the moon has the Sun's added pull on the earth's tectonic plates. When the Sun and Moon are together on one side of the planet, they pull together and lift up the earth's tectonic plate, just beneath the eclipse. This causes the plate to shift upward, and then an earth quake when the lifted plate gets the little extra push (lift) it needed to move over its neighboring plate. The theory may be hair brained, or it might actually have some pull to it. (pun intended) I'd like to do a simulator game to find out.

Making the simulator
So you start and make a simulated, earth sun and moon in a TGEA map with the terrain removed. (Space Map)

Space Map Resource
Space Map Forum Post

The TGEA model earth would be a basic dts sphere. It would then have some curved meshes (dts objects) mounted to on it to simulate the shifting continental plates. The model earth and moon would respond to real game physics for gravity to simulate an orbit. The dts mesh plates would also respond to the gravitational pull of the sun and moon. In the TGEA simulation, the sun could simply be be a fixed gravitational spot (and source of light).

I think some plates are known to be on top, and others to be on the bottom where they meet, so this is kind of important. To do it right, the tectonic plate meshes would need to have collision detection much better than a simple bounding box. It can't be built to actual scale (distance between a scaled down version of the earth and moon is too great for a basic TGEA map), and the physics can only approximate the real pull... but a basic approximation of the theory could be done.


Earth Plate Tectonics

Then you feed in the eclipse data so the moon is orbiting correctly... and let the simulation begin on a certain date. Eclipse and earth quake data below.

Quote:On Wednesday, 2009 July 22, a total eclipse of the Sun is visible from within a narrow corridor that traverses half of Earth. The path of the Moon's umbral shadow begins in India and crosses through Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar and China. After leaving mainland Asia, the path crosses Japan's Ryukyu Islands and curves southeast through the Pacific Ocean where the maximum duration of totality reaches 6 min 39 s. A partial eclipse is seen within the much broader path of the Moon's penumbral shadow, which includes most of eastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Pacific Ocean.

You could do it for past earth quakes to see the correlation too. If anyone wants to do this game, by all means go for it.. Who knows? You might even get a government grant to fund its development. The image above shows a total eclipse in South East Asia July 2009. (It starts right over the plates between India and Burma). Bangladesh may be a mess this summer.

I can see the seam right in the middle of the pacific where the eclipse is in full effect. I wonder if a major earthquake would create a tsunami for Japan and New Zealand. If this theory is right then Japan would get a both a quake and a tsunami this summer. I'm really curios to see if there is anything to this theory. This one article
Russian confirm planetary angular momentum theory ... seems kind a half baked.

World Earthquake Maps

SCEC Southern California Earthquake Center
Video of Earthquake, and Tsunami Simulation
Disaster machines: Simulating earthquakes
M7.0 Earthquake Simulation for Hayward Fault, California

TGEA 1.8..0 looks much better than any of the other computer simulation software I've seen so far. I think we could use shaders to show the stress and pull of the moon on the earth's plates. When the moon hits the seams we could use an earth quake shader like the last video with the ripple.

Parting Thoughts

Wikipedia Tides
The tidal forces are also stronger when the sun and moon are inline. The thought is that the liquid hot magma beneath the tectonic plates must also follow a similar principle. The earth rotates beneath the moon faster than the moon orbits the earth.. So in theory a few hours before / after the eclipse you could have some shifting in the tidal magma beneath the tectonic plate. The whole day of July 22 2009 will be interesting. The earth will rotate in the summer so that the northern hemisphere is facing the sun. The moon will cross over 3 distinct tectonic plates known for earth quakes on that day.

Its perfectly possible there will be some pretty heavy earthquakes in those regions on July 22 2009.

Final Blog and Predictions for the Eclipse Earthquake theory here

Contributed (TQ) by : "Masinah Mohd Daud"  "Ahmad Fuad Ahmad"



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